2025 NCAA Wrestling Championship Preview & Predictions - 197 Pounds
2025 NCAA Wrestling Championship Preview & Predictions - 197 Pounds
A full preview, with predictions, for the 197-pound weight class at the 2025 NCAA Wrestling Championships.

The once topsy-turvy 197-pound class has a bit more sanity this season — at least we think.
Gone are All-Americans Aaron Brooks (Penn State), Trent Hidlay (NC State), Tanner Sloan (SDSU), Rocky Elam (Missouri), Lou Deprez (Binghamton), and John Poznanski (Rutgers).
In comes Cal State Bakersfield’s AJ Ferrari — a 2021 NCAA champion for Oklahoma State who returned to competition after limited action for the past three years. Ferrari is 17-0 this season but only has one win against a returning All-American.
Proven stars are wearing different singlets. Top-seeded Jacob Cardenas transferred from Cornell to Michigan, and #2 Stephen Buchanan transferred from Oklahoma to Iowa.
Redshirt freshman Josh Barr could add his name to the list of Penn State stars to win the 197-pound class.
This weight will be fun, but — presumably — it won’t be a hot mess. Established stars should stay established as they move through the rounds.
2025 Top Eight Seeds (Name, School, Season Record)
1. Jacob Cardenas, Michigan, 20-1
2. Stephen Buchanan, Iowa, 21-1
3. AJ Ferrari, Cal State-Bakersfield, 17-0
4. Josh Barr, Penn State, 16-3
5. Michael Beard, Lehigh, 20-1
6. Mac Stout, Pittsburgh, 23-2
7. Wyatt Voelker, Northern Iowa, 24-4
8. Luke Surber, Oklahoma State, 22-3
2024 Place Winners
1. Aaron Brooks, Penn State
2. Trent Hidlay, NC State
3. Stephen Buchanan, Oklahoma
4. Jacob Cardenas, Cornell
5. Tanner Sloan, South Dakota State
6. Rocky Elam, Missouri
7. Stephen Little, Little Rock
8. Michael Beard, Lehigh
Last 10 197-pound NCAA champions
2024: Aaron Brooks, Penn State
2023: Nino Bonaccorsi, Pitt
2022: Max Dean, Penn State
2021: AJ Ferrari, Oklahoma State
2020: Canceled
2019: Bo Nickal, Penn State
2018: Mike Macchiavello, NC State
2017: J’den Cox, Missouri
2016: J’den Cox, Missouri
2015: Kyven Gadson, Iowa State
2014: J’den Cox, Missouri
The Favorite: Jacob Cardenas, Michigan
Cardenas earned the top seed with wins over the top wrestlers in the field and a proven body of work. He won the Big Ten Championships, defeating Barr in the semifinals (4-1 SV) and Buchanan in the finals (4-2).
After he won the 2024 Cliff Keen-Las Vegas Invitational, Cardenas said all he needs is a double-leg takedown and a tilt. And he might be right. Of his 20 wins, Cardenas has eight techs, four majors, and a fall. This has been his best college season after national finishes of eighth and fourth for Cornell. He is also a three-time U23 World medalist.
His lone season loss was a 3-2 tiebreaker setback to Barr on Feb. 7. The two could meet again in the semifinals if both win their first three matches. Beard is seeded fifth and could meet Cardenas in the semis, too — assuming he gets that far. The Lehigh senior is 3-1 against Cardenas and could be his toughest foe.
Cardenas won by fall in the 2024 CKLV finals
The Contenders
#2 Stephen Buchanan, Iowa
#3 AJ Ferrari, Cal State-Bakersfield
#4 Josh Barr, Penn State
#5 Michael Beard, Lehigh
Cardenas is the favorite, but he’s far from a lock. Buchanan, Ferrari, Barr, and Beard had strong seasons and could take the top spot. Buchanan has a comprehensive body of work, finishing third, third, and eighth at the NCAA Championships. He lost to Cardenas in the Big Ten finals but defeated him 9-4 for third at last year’s nationals. His ability to ride and turn will serve him well as he moves through the rounds.
Buchanan is on a semifinal collision course with Ferrari — one of the most anticipated matchups of the tournament. Ferrari has two career wins over Buchanan, with a 13-8 victory in the 2021 Big 12 finals.
Much has happened since the two last met. Ferrari is undefeated for Cal-State Bakersfield — winning the Pac 12 title with a 2-0 finals win over Little Rock’s Stephen Little — but hasn’t faced anyone seeded in the top 10 this season.
Overlook Ferrari at your peril. He’s nearly impossible to take down and has a suffocating top game. There’s every reason to believe he can win his second national championship.
Barr fell to Buchanan in the dual and to Cardenas at Big Tens but tore through most of his opponents. He injured his ankle against Minnesota’s Isaiah Salazar at Big Tens before defaulting out of the match and the tournament. The severity of the injury is unknown, but Penn State has a history of overcoming injuries at nationals, so don’t count him out.
Beard suffered an 11-3 loss to Barr on Dec. 8, 2024, but has 20 season wins. His opening match is against Navy’s Payton Thomas — an opponent he defeated 3-2 on Jan. 17 and pinned at the EIWA Championships.

Follow AJ Ferrari in depth as he competes at the 2025 NWCA National Duals
Sleepers And Landmines
#9 Zac Braunagel, Illinois
#10 Isaiah Salazar, Minnesota
#12 Stephen Little, Little Rock
#13 Trey Munoz, Oregon State
Braunagel is down to his super senior season after taking an Olympic redshirt. He is a four-time qualifier, reaching the Round of 12 in 2022 and 2023. Expect him to be extra motivated to reach the podium for the first time.
Salazar is a returning All-American with an 18-6 record, including two losses to Braunagel. He typically doesn’t get blown out against top opponents — a dangerous situation if a match comes down to the wire.
Little is a returning All-American with an 18-3 record this season. He could face Beard in the second round — an opponent he defeated 10-3 for seventh at the 2024 NCAA Championships. A win by Little could change the framework of the bracket.
Munoz is 9-4 this season but has national finishes of third and sixth at 184 pounds. He could face Barr in the second round. A Munoz vs Little match-up in the second round is a possibility. Little posted a 7-4 win at Pac 12s, so he has the edge if they meet.
Zac Braunagel secured a sudden victory win over Mac Stout earlier this season
Circle These Potential Round 2 Match-ups
#6 Mac Stout (Pittsburgh) vs #11 Luke Stout (Princeton)
Brothers Mac and Luke are on a second-round collision course. Sophomore Mac is younger with a better seed, having reached the Round of 16 last year. Luke is a three-time national qualifier with a 2-6 NCAA tournament record.
#3 AJ Ferrari (Cal State-Bakersfield) vs #14 Zac Glazier (South Dakota State)
Glazier (then with Iowa) defeated Ferrari (competing unattached) in the 2023 Soldier Salute finals when Ferrari scored in overtime but was disqualified during a post-match altercation.
Predictions
Ferrari hasn't faced high-level competition this season like others, but that makes him dangerous. He’s a proven winner and the only returning NCAA champion in the field. He didn’t blow through the competition in 2021, so expect a few tight, hard-fought matches.
Cardenas is wrestling better than ever, and his explosive takedown game will come in handy if he faces Ferrari in the finals. Buchanan can avenge two losses to Ferrari in the semis (assuming they both get there). Expect one of these three to win the title.
1. AJ Ferrari, Cal State-Bakersfield
2. Jacob Cardenas, Michigan
3. Stephen Buchanan, Iowa
4. Josh Barr, Penn State
5. Michael Beard, Lehigh
6. Isaiah Salazar, Minnesota
7. Mac Stout, Pitt
8. Stephen Little, Little Rock